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Article by Eva Pintado (Permian global project partner with RMU)
What is a baseline renewal?
In a REDD+ project like Katingan Mentaya, the baseline is a reference scenario; it represents what would likely happen to the forests and peatlands without the project. By comparing this scenario with the real outcomes achieved on the ground, we can calculate how much deforestation has been avoided and how many emissions have been prevented.
Because landscapes, policies, and science evolve, projects are required to renew their baselines periodically. This ensures that credits remain accurate, relevant, and credible. For us, this renewal is the first of its kind, and we have taken the opportunity to go beyond the minimum requirements and embrace advances in both policy and science.
Updating the Baseline with Policy Changes
The process began with a policy analysis to identify any new regulations introduced since the project start date. Several were identified, but one was particularly important: the 2019 Ministry of Environment and Forestry Regulation (P.10/MENLHK/SETJEN/KUML.1/3/2019), which requires plantations to delineate and protect the “peak of the peat dome.”
This regulation had direct implications for our baseline scenario. We therefore updated our baseline model to designate these newly delineated areas as protected, reducing the land available for conversion in the baseline and ensuring that the model reflects both regulatory requirements and common practice.
Reassessing Proxy Areas
Another essential step was to review our proxy areas; the comparable sites we use to estimate what would happen without the project. Some of the original proxies no longer met the criteria. The area of one of them had changed significantly in ways that no longer satisfied environmental requirements, while another had its license revoked due to mismanagement.
We identified and added new proxy areas to replace them, ensuring that they met the requirements set by the methodology. With these final proxy areas established, we then recalculated the deforestation rate, using a 20-year historical period as required by the methodology. This updated deforestation rate was applied to the baseline model to estimate the likely pace of forest conversion year by year.
Strengthening the Science and Methods
The baseline renewal also provided an opportunity to improve the scientific foundations of the project. We introduced several upgrades that were not required but that significantly enhance accuracy and transparency.
Above-Ground Biomass (AGB):
Traditionally, above ground biomass had been estimated using average values for each forest stratum. Instead, we developed high-resolution, wall-to-wall biomass maps, combining multiple remote sensing datasets (GEDI, Chloris, Sentinel-2, Harmonised Landsat–Sentinel-2) with data from newly established field plots. These maps provide a far more detailed understanding of forest carbon stocks, allowing us to monitor degradation, regrowth, and above-ground carbon loss more accurately. Additionally, they allow us to estimate AGB on a yearly basis, significantly increasing the frequency in which above ground biomass is monitored in the project.
Digital Terrain Model (DTM) and Peat Thickness Map:
We produced a new DTM and peat thickness map using ICESat-2 and GEDI data and field measurements. This improves our ability to estimate carbon stored in peatlands and to track changes over time.
Soil Emission Factors:
In the past, soil (peat) emissions have typically been calculated using Tier 1 emission factors from the IPCC Wetlands Supplement, which are based on broad land-use categories. To improve on this, we developed Tier 2 emission factors using a predictive model that incorporates water table depth and land-use class. This model, built on peer-reviewed data published up to September 2023, captures site-specific variation and provides more accurate, dynamic predictions. Importantly, it allows us to refine emission factors as new data, whether from literature or project-specific measurements, becomes available.
Together, these improvements significantly enhance the scientific robustness of the project, ensuring that our emissions estimates are as accurate and credible as possible.
Why This Matters
These efforts go far beyond compliance. By upgrading our models and adopting the latest scientific advances, we are setting a higher standard for how baselines are modelled. This work strengthens the accuracy and credibility of our Verified Carbon Units (VCUs), while also reinforcing the trust placed in us by communities, partners, and buyers who rely on the project to deliver genuine climate benefits.
Next Steps
At present, we are in the midst of the verification process with the Validation and Verification Body (VVB). This independent assessment is the final step in confirming that our renewed baseline and upgraded methods meet the rigorous requirements of the methodology.
Completing our first baseline renewal is a major undertaking. For us, it is more than a regulatory obligation: it is a chance to raise the bar, embrace scientific innovation, and demonstrate our commitment to continuous improvement.
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